E347: The $26B CIO Who Turned Superforecasting Into Alpha

How does super forecasting play into how you manage $26,000,000,000 today?. So Phil Tetlock spent decades proving that, like, most experts are terrible forecasters.

It goes beyond the title with direct discussion of know, like, right, including: This is a great question, and I love that we're starting with, doctor Phil Tetlock.

1. 01And over like the subsequent four years, which I think went from 2010 to about 2014, grinding through geopolitical questions with like real scoring, I learned what we call calibrat
2. 02And so we're tracking the quality of the decision making as well, and we can measure, you know, hey, somebody's overconfident or underconfident, what would have happened to specifi
3. 03All of that goes away when you have this objective scoring and this objective, very quantitative approach