The Strait of Hormuz is open, what risks remain?

The Strait of Hormuz has partially reopened after a six-week closure, but only a third of the waterway is accessible due to uncharted mines and military blockades. Insurers are not rushing to resume coverage, demanding clarity on U.S.-Iran agreements around sanctions, toll payments, and the role of the IRGC, a designated terrorist organization. While global markets react positively, the reality is that safe passage remains uncertain, with only 20 ships able to pass daily—far below the pre-war average of 130.

Understand how geopolitical chokepoints are weaponized, the real cost of asymmetric warfare, and why insurance markets—not headlines—determine the true reopening of global trade routes.

1. 01The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is limited to a coordinated route covering only a third of the strait, with minefields and military obstructions still blocking full access.
2. 02Insurers are withholding broad coverage pending details on U.S.-Iran agreements, particularly around sanctions compliance and how tolls—dubbed 'Ayatoll'—are paid, especially given the IRGC's terrorist designation.
3. 03Non-Western shippers, particularly Chinese vessels, have already navigated the strait by paying tolls in cryptocurrency or yuan, bypassing Western banking restrictions, while Western tankers remain constrained.